Uncertainty

One of the principal reasons that I have not blogged in such a long time is that I believe my level of certainty regarding the topics I normally feel compelled to discuss has decreased over time. I am not certain (HA!) what has been the cause of this transition, but one event that I believe has at the very least served to crystallize my increased uncertainty came out of the candidacy of Herman Cain. You may remember him as one of the more ridiculous offerings the Republican Party served up during the primaries. Cain said two things that have really stuck with me since he left the race:

1. Nine! Nine! Nine!
2. I don't have the facts to back this up, but...

The first, of course, is his economic plan, which I am sure his campaign manager is glad I remember. The second is the preface to some opinions Cain went on to express regarding Occupy Wall Street which are not particularly important at the moment. The comment was featured on The Daily Show (which I regularly watch) and was popular on Twitter for a time.

More importantly for me, however, it has stuck in my mind, and I found that whenever I would begin a post (recently, primarily on political or economic issues), I would find myself inserting it rather snidely into the text at various points throughout. It isn't odd for me to insert snide comments parenthetically, but what is odd is that the target of these jabs was, of course, me. I would read over a few paragraphs and find that I had actually been insulting myself throughout. As a result, I would begin fairly substantial drafts, read over them and realize the reality is much more nuanced or I had little empirical evidence for a position, try to insert sufficient caveats to address the nuance, and then realize that the sum total of argument plus caveats was essentially zero. I wasn't really saying anything useful, and the posts would become prohibitively lengthy as I tried to address more and more nuance - so I would just delete the draft.

I still believe that the answers exist (although I don't have the facts to back that up either), and I hope that I will figure out what they are, but it is interesting (and more than a little daunting) how difficult and complicated that process can be. Perhaps I will find a more useful way to discuss interesting issues in light of nuance - or perhaps I will continue deleting drafts. I already have more draft posts than published posts, so I suppose that does not bode well.